- Basepoint Finance
- Posts
- ✨Weekly Financial Update: Bitcoin Surge, Nvidia vs. Intel & S&P500 Projection
✨Weekly Financial Update: Bitcoin Surge, Nvidia vs. Intel & S&P500 Projection
Your comprehensive guide to the week's top financial news and market update
Welcome back to our weekly newsletter! We have things all ready and summarized for you🔥
Bitcoin is back at above $30k!🥳
Nvidia's Bold Attempt to Challenge Intel💻
S&P 500 won’t resume climb till 2024📅
What to know this Week? 📅
📊Market Performance
S&P 500: 4,217.04 (-2.83%)
DJI: 32,936.41 (-2.78%)
Nasdaq-100: 14,604.85 (-2.40%)
Russell 2000: 1,851.54 (-0.23%)
Bitcoin: 33,914.70 (+2.90%)🔥
Gold: $1,977.50 (+0.19%)
Prices are acquired at the time of writing✍
Bitcoin and Gold are the only ones up from the past 7 days. All Indexes are currently down from last week.
Bitcoin is 75.32% up from year to date.
Big Tech Earnings
This week, tech giants: Microsoft, Meta Platforms, Amazon, and Google's parent company Alphabet are set to report earnings.
Other notable companies like Visa, Mastercard, Verizon, Boeing, GE, Ford, General Motors, Spotify, Snap, IBM, Intel, ExxonMobil, and Chevron will also release their earnings report.
Third-quarter GDP
The Bureau of Economic Analysis will release the advance estimate for the third-quarter U.S. Gross Domestic Product (GDP) on Thursday. The GDP gives an idea of the total value of goods and services produced in the U.S. economy.
FED's Inflation Gauge
On Friday, the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index will be released. This data is watched closely by the Federal Reserve as it measures inflation in the economy.
Earnings Reports for Particular Dates
Several companies are slated to report earnings on various dates. Some of them include
Oct. 24: Microsoft, Alphabet, Visa, The Coca-Cola Company, and many more.
Oct. 25: Meta Platforms, IBM, Boeing, etc.
Oct. 26: Amazon, Mastercard, Intel, etc.
Oct. 27: ExxonMobil, Chevron, AbbVie, and others.
Inflation Measurements
Connectively, The Cleveland Federal Reserve Bank expects PCE prices to have increased by 0.35% last month. Furthermore, the core PCE Price Index is likely up 3.7% from a year ago, nearing the Federal Reserve's 2% target.
Bitcoin is back at above $30k!🥳
Yes, you have read that right. Bitcoin is above $30k and now close to $35k.
But why the sudden movement?
Bitcoin's value is going up because there's a potential Exchange Traded Fund (ETF) approval coming up. ETFs allow people to invest more easily in Bitcoin.
BlackRock is preparing to list its Bitcoin ETF, which helps boost Bitcoin's price. Some experts believe Bitcoin could reach $75,000 in a few months because of this. Furthermore, Jack Tan from Woo Network says the increase in Bitcoin's price is also due to people anticipating the potential ETF approval.
BREAKING: $BTC BREAKS $32K
— DEGEN NEWS 🗞️ (@DegenerateNews)
10:27 PM • Oct 23, 2023
Bitcoin is also seen as a safe place to put money during uncertain times, similar to gold in the past. (As you can tell from the market summary from last week)
Larry Fink, BlackRock’s CEO
This idea is supported by Quinn Thompson from Maple Finance and BlackRock CEO Larry Fink. Also, there might be some selling pressure as the discount gap for the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC) narrows.
Of course we have Crypto Twitter (hard to refer it as X) happy about this price movement at the moment.
❗Seems Bitcoin has decided to choose violence against bears. ❗
I highlighted the possibility of getting a blastoff and breaking 32K but honestly, wasn't expecting such a move.
Bitcoin has also invalidated the weekly H&S which, technically speaking, sets away the 20K target… twitter.com/i/web/status/1…
— ZERO IKA 🗡️ (@IamZeroIka)
6:13 AM • Oct 24, 2023
#BTC is currently $1k above the fake Cointelegraph spot ETF tweet.
And the ETF hasn't even been approved yet.
Is this the beginning of a "sell the news" event, or are we about to see a continuous rally up?
— Ignas | DeFi Research (@DefiIgnas)
5:01 PM • Oct 23, 2023
Nvidia's Bold Attempt to Challenge Intel💻
Nvidia, the dominant player in the artificial intelligence (AI) chip market, is taking a strategic leap by venturing into personal computers - a dominion long held by Intel.
NVIDIA’s CEO, Jensen Huang
Nvidia has initiated the design of central processing units (CPUs) that are compatible with Windows, Microsoft's operating system. This task is being carried out in collaboration with Arm Holdings, a renowned technology firm.
This ambitious move brings Nvidia directly into competition with Intel and signifies a potentially significant shift in the PC industry.
Microsoft, on its part, is championing chip companies like Nvidia to develop Arm-based processors for Windows PCs.
This strategy is an indirect challenge to Apple, which has been a significant market player since it launched in-house Arm-based chips for Mac computers.
This strategic move by Nvidia has stirred up quite a reaction in the market, as evidenced by a notable 3.84% surge in Nvidia shares, while Intel shares observed a dip of 3.06%.
The success of this venture, however, isn't guaranteed. Challenges abound, especially considering decades of software development for Windows that run on the x86 computing architecture, the standard used by Intel and AMD.
S&P 500 won’t resume climb till 2024📅
According to a well-recognized voice in the world of equity, we might expect a slowdown in the progress of the S&P 500 in the coming years.
Barry Bannister, Chief EquityStrategist at Stifel
Barry Bannister, the chief equity strategist at Stifel, who previously predicted the stock rally in the first half, asserts that stocks might remain flat or range-bound through the end of 2023. He also foresees that the rallying trend will not pick up momentum until at least April 2024.
Bannister's target prediction for the S&P 500 is fixed at 4,400, but he believes this figure will only be achieved in April 2024 rather than by the end of 2023. This opinion arises from a belief that higher interest rates could create downward pressure on corporate earnings, thereby affecting stock prices.
He equates the future of the market to a "sideways trading range" for the foreseeable future. 🥴
Additionally, Bannister predicts an increase in economic risks for equities by the late 2023 due to the anticipated stagnation of stock gains in the second half of the year. Concerning Treasury yields, he foresees a peak around 5%, which in turn could strain corporate earnings in the mid-2020s.
Furthermore, he cites the current health of the U.S. labor market as a potential positive influence, which could spur "the Fed rate normalization," indirectly affecting price-to-earnings ratios for stocks.
This strategist also sees the S&P 500 remaining range-bound for the rest of the 2020s due to potential constraints on financial conditions that could offset growth in earnings-per-share (EPS).
Forecasts
GOLD (XAU)
XAU/USD Weekly
This week, gold's price began lower than the resistance level set in the past week, after a significant price increase in the preceding two weeks. Despite starting the week below this weekly resistance mark of 1980, there's noticeable buying activity stopping the price from dropping further.
This buying pressure is evident in the shape of this week's candlestick on the price chart.
Looking at the daily chart, we can see that gold is now at a critical level, an area between 1977 and 1984, which has acted as both support and resistance in the past. Whenever the price hits this area, it usually triggers a substantial uptrend or downtrend over the following days.
Last week, gold tried to break through this area and continue its uptrend, but it didn't manage to, leading to a drop in the price. Now, we expect that the price will treat this area as a resistance level, and we predict a downtrend for the coming week.
Two areas to watch are the daily support level between 1945 and 1950, and another support level between 1932 and 1923. If the price starts to fall this week, we think it might hit the first support level and then bounce back up to test the resistance level between 1977 and 1984.
However, if the price breaks through the first support level, we then expect it to fall towards the support level between 1932 and 1923.
BITCOIN (BTC)
In big news this week, Bitcoin has finally risen and gone above the 30K region. Last week, the price ended at the 30K level after steadily climbing over the week.
This week, the price started higher than where it ended last week, and has finally broken through the 30K barrier, continuing to rise.
BTC/USD (Weekly)
The recent increase in Bitcoin's price is largely due to investor enthusiasm and ripple effects in the crypto world.
This is because Blackrock's ETFs are now listed on NASDAQ's Clearing.
There was a significant rise in the price a week ago due to rumors that BlackRock's application for a Bitcoin ETF had been approved, but when this turned out to be untrue, the price fell again sharply.
This happened on Monday, October 16, 2023, and it was a noticeable event in the price chart. From a technical analysis perspective, this price movement indicated that if Bitcoin could break through the level at which it got rejected, it could potentially keep rising higher.
If we look at the daily chart, there was an initial sharp rise and subsequent decrease in Bitcoin's price on October 16, 2023.
However, throughout that week, the price gradually climbed as more buyers entered the market. Once it broke free from the range where the price had been fluctuating, Bitcoin shot up and finally broke through the 30k level.
Based on this, we can predict that the downturn in the cryptocurrency market, often referred to as 'crypto winter', may be nearing its end.
Right now, Bitcoin's price is hovering around the 34K - 35K range. This range was a support level before, but now it's being tested as resistance since the price has climbed above 30K. So, for continued climb, the price must break through this range.
For this week, we have to wait and see how the price behaves to have a clearer understanding.
The prediction right now is that Bitcoin will maintain this range for a while, with the 30k level serving as key support. This is the first time the current resistance level is being tested, as it hasn't been tested before.
If the price doesn't break through the 34k - 35k range, Bitcoin is expected to drop back down to the 30k level before trying to surpass the resistance range again.
✨Bonus News✨
Disclaimer: This is not any kind of financial advise. This newsletter is solely informational; it does not constitute investment advice, a solicitation to buy or sell any securities, or a recommendation regarding how to manage your money. Be cautious and conduct your own study, please.
Reply